论北京城市建设的综合减灾问题

本文针对北京城市建设面临的自然与人为灾害背景,简要论述了北京地震、水灾、火灾及“新致灾源”的历史及现状,强调开展首都圈灾害研究及减灾规划设计的重要性,并提出了系统的减灾方略及相应的管理构想。     

Integrated model of simulated occupant injury risk and real medical costs

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated methodology that links occupant injury risk functions, estimated in the laboratory, with real world medical treatment costs by using the abbreviated injury score (AIS). Using our model, the expected medical treatment costs for crash injuries to various body regions and of different severities can be investigated.

Methods

First, the simulation results are compared with NHTSA crash data. We used a modified kinematics simulation model that incorporates an F = E^b function as a supplement to the previous Steffan's model to obtain a more accurate acceleration history a(t). Second, head injury criteria HIC₃₆ can be calculated from a(t), and we use the injury probability P as a function of HIC_36, as proposed by Kuppa, to obtain the injury risk function for various AIS values. Third, medical treatment cost models for various AIS values can be calculated by using a regression cost model with real world data. Finally, the injury risk function and medical treatment cost models are linked through AIS values. We establish an integrated methodology and predict medical costs and car safety data using real world police reports, medical treatment costs, and laboratory simulation results.

Results

Using head injuries in frontal crashes as an example, we focus on simulation parameters for different vehicle models, with and without airbags. We specifically examine impact closing speed, Delta-V, and impact directions.

Conclusion

Simulation results can be used to supplement insufficient real crash data, in particular ΔV, and injury risk results from police crash reports.

Impact on industry

The proposed integrated methodology may provide the vehicle industry with a new safety assessment method. Real crash data coupling provides consumers with more realistic and applicable information.     

An integrated approach: managing resources for post-disaster reconstruction

A lack of resources for post-disaster housing reconstruction significantly limits the prospects for successful recovery. Following the earthquake in Wenchuan, China, in May 2008, housing reconstruction was not immune to resource shortages and price inflation. Difficulties in sourcing materials and labour considerably impeded recovery. This paper provides evidence of the resourcing bottlenecks inherent in the post-Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction process. Its aim is to present an integrated planning framework for managing resources for post-disaster housing rebuilding. The results are drawn from in-field surveys that highlight the areas where stakeholders need to concentrate effort, including revising legislation and policy, enhancing capacity for rebuilding in the construction industry, strengthening the transportation network, restructuring market mechanisms, and incorporating environmental considerations into overall planning. Although the case study presented here is country-specific, it is hoped that the findings provide a basis for future research to identify resourcing constraints and solutions in other disaster contexts.     

Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

以人为因素为中心的航空安全多级模糊综合评价

在航空安全中,根据SHEL模型,以人为因素为中心,列出影响航空安全的一级和二级指标进行多级模糊综合评价,得出各指标对航空安全的影响权重,从而采取相应措施,即加强组织内的横向纵向沟通交流,加大机务方面的培训力度,严格按照标准操作程序,形成公正合理、积极向上的企业文化,以提高航空安全.     

三峡库区地质灾害监测技术及展望

笔者综述了三峡库区地质灾害监测技术的应用现状。在论述当前地质灾害监测技术存在的问题的基础上,提出了新型的基于Internet的地质灾害远程、集中监测系统,并详细讨论了该技术的原理、结构、应用前景以及功能完善和发展方向。新型安全监测系统的使用可有效防止库区地质灾害的发生,控制其潜在危害;提高库区整体预警管理水平,有效增强防灾减灾能力;显著降低库区安全监测系统运行成本。     

车辆事故紧急呼救技术发展综述

综述了车辆事故紧急呼救技术的原理,从车辆事故检测识别技术、移动车辆定位技术、无线通信技术和地理信息系统几方面概述车辆事故紧急呼救技术的研究内容。进一步介绍车辆事故紧急呼救技术的国内外研究和应用现状,并从车辆事故识别技术、地图匹配及组合导航、集群通信及通信网络几方面总结并指出车辆事故紧急呼救技术的关键技术和难点。展望了车辆事故紧急呼救技术的发展趋势,并就我国发展车辆事故呼救技术的可行性和发展方向进行探讨。     

减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。     

"四荒地"开发中面临的问题与对策

“四荒地”的开发利用是农业生态环境建设的重要手段和实现农业产业化的重要内容。林业科技成果的配套应用是开发荒山、荒沙、荒地、荒滩地的必然选择，经济、法律和行政手段的综合运用是发展生态经济，实现农业可持续发展的根本保证。     

应用GIS-ANN进行土地盐碱化危险度评价--以吉林西部平原为例

土地盐碱化可破坏生态环境，制约社会经济的可持续发展，已成为一种严重的环境灾害。应用GIS技术提取土地盐碱化和环境信息，采用关联度法分析了土地盐碱化与各环境要素之间的关系，应用人工神经网络模型(ANN)进行了盐碱化危险度评价。结果表明，吉林西部平原有53．97％的土地盐碱化危险度为Ⅳ级和V级。实践证明，应用GIS—ANN集成技术评价土地盐碱化的危险度是一种较好的方法，为土地盐碱化的防治提供了科学依据。